An Overview of Capital Market History

Table of Contents

1. Goal

Using historical data we want to get an idea about the relationship between risk and return. In particular that higher risk affords higher return. In later chapters we will see that this statement is too simplistic, and in fact only higher systematic risk affords higher returns.

2. Calculating Returns

To calculate returns we need to first calculate our dollar gain or loss, and then divide this by the cost of our investment.

3. Arithmetic Average vs Geometric Average Returns

  • Arithmetic Average:

\[\bar{r}_{aa} = \frac{r_1 + r_2 + .... + r_n}{n}\]

  • Geometric Average:

\[\bar{r}_{ga} = (r_1 r_2 .... r_n)^{(1/n)}\]

4. The Distribution of Asset Returns

4.1. Describing stock returns

4.2. Using stock distributions to measure risk

4.3. Stock distributions changing over time

4.4. Variance (risk) increases when markets decline

4.5. Distributions over time

5. The Historical Record: 1999-2019

6. The Yield Curve and Recessions

Author: Matt Brigida, Ph.D.

Created: 2021-05-28 Fri 22:13

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